What can Kazakhstan expect from the coup in Syria?
The first and most apparent factor that will be influenced by the overthrow of Assad in Syria is global oil prices.
The civil war in Syria has been raging since 2011—and it is still not over, despite the fall of Assad's regime. From the very beginning of the conflict, Syria ceased oil exports. Before 2011, the country produced about 383,000 barrels per day, but after years of fierce fighting, its economy has collapsed. By 2023, oil production in Syria had decreased ninefold, to approximately 40,000 barrels per day. Due to harsh international sanctions, Assad's regime relied on supplies from Iran (which will likely cease after the victory of the Sunni armed opposition, which has conflicts with Shiite Iran).
Whether the new Syrian government will be able to resume oil production and exports is still uncertain. However, global markets have already reacted to Assad's overthrow with a rise in oil prices. According to Newsweek, on Monday, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 69 cents in light of the events in Syria, reaching $71.81 per barrel.
“Although Syria itself is not a major oil producer, its strategic location could jeopardize the plans of leading oil-producing countries, including Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Further escalation in the Middle East could disrupt key production operations or transport routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-sixth of global oil supplies pass,” Newsweek points out.
It might seem that rising oil prices are beneficial for Kazakhstan: the country is heavily dependent on oil prices, which are crucial for budget replenishment and GDP growth. However, the situation is more complicated. In Syria, the interests of major oil market players converge—primarily Saudi Arabia, which unofficially manages OPEC+, and Iran. Therefore, Kazakhstan will need to closely monitor developments in the Middle East.
“The potential destabilization of the Middle East could impact global energy markets, posing a challenge for Kazakhstan as a major exporter of oil and gas. This could necessitate adjustments to the country's economic policy,” says political scientist Anuar Bakhitkhanov.
Not welcome for the Mujahideen
The second issue Kazakhstan may face due to recent events in Syria is an increased terrorist threat. This is potentially far more dangerous than uncertainty in the oil market.
It is no secret that the Syrian conflict has served as a sort of "valve" for radical Islamists over the past 13 years, who eagerly traveled to the Middle East to fight against Assad's regime. Throughout the civil war, more than three hundred individuals from Kazakhstan traveled to Syria. Many of them participated in combat on the side of the terrorist organization ISIS*, which is banned in Kazakhstan. Some of them have since returned home.
Moreover, the Kazakh authorities have aided in the return of the families of militants who remained in Syria after the defeat of ISIS. As part of Operation "Jusan," from 2019 to 2021, a total of 607 Kazakhs were evacuated from Syria—among them 37 men who were immediately detained and convicted for participating in terrorist activities. This, however, does not prevent some extremists from continuing their propaganda even in prisons.
Now, with Assad's regime gone, other "mujahideen" may return to Kazakhstan. This poses a risk of increased radicalization.
Furthermore, the "armed opposition" that overthrew Assad's regime and now controls a large part of Syria are not noble freedom fighters. The group "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham," composed of radical Salafists, plays a leading role in this diverse assembly of rebels. Their hatred for Syria's religious minorities (Shiites, Alawites, Christians, Yazidis, etc.) was the primary reason for their hostility towards Assad's regime, rather than a desire to end the dictatorship. The organization is officially recognized as extremist in the USA, Russia, and Turkey.
Kazakh religious scholar Al-Farabi Bolatjan points out that the takeover of power in Syria by "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" is the second dangerous precedent following Afghanistan, where the "Taliban" has once again taken control.
“At the helm of Syria is the group 'Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.' This is a former affiliate of the banned 'Al-Qaeda' in Kazakhstan*, and there are people from ISIS and other groups among them. This could inspire extremists to replicate their experience in other countries, including Kazakhstan. A new focal point for extremists may emerge. This is dangerous for us—in the sense that radicals will try to cultivate their ideology in the CIS through their recruitment networks and attract our citizens to join the fight. After all, there is still no unified authority in Syria; various warring factions exist. The fact that 'Hayat Tahrir al-Sham' militants have seized control over the majority of Syria strengthens their position and could facilitate the export of their ideology to other countries,” notes Al-Farabi Bolatjan.
The religious scholar emphasizes that there are Russian-speaking militants among "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham," such as Farukh Faizimotov, a native of Tajikistan. They actively engage in propaganda through social media, targeting residents of former Soviet countries.
However, the National Security Committee is prepared to respond to the threat of the "export" of Syrian radicalism to Kazakhstan, believes political scientist Anuar Bakhitkhanov.
“After the end of hostilities, there is a likelihood that some Kazakhs who previously went to Syria may attempt to return. However, the National Security Committee already has experience dealing with such situations, thanks to operations like 'Jusan,' and is ready to tackle such challenges,” the expert assures.
A process without results?
The third issue that events in Syria could create for Kazakhstan is, surprisingly, an image problem. Our country has made considerable diplomatic efforts to resolve the Syrian conflict peacefully within the framework of the Astana process. Now, there may be an impression that more than twenty diplomatic meetings in the capital of Kazakhstan have been a waste of time.
The last such meeting took place in November. It involved 11 delegations, including representatives from Iran, Russia, Turkey, the UN, and Assad's regime. However, the situation "on the ground" in Syria is now determined not by world powers, but by numerous rebel factions, radicals, and vigilantes that do not participate in any high-level negotiations. Astana, in full accordance with the peaceful policies of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has graciously provided a platform for discussing humanitarian initiatives and attempts to establish dialogue in Syria for many years—yet received nothing in return.
Even the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan is currently unsure about the continuation of the Astana process. The ministry is monitoring the developments.
“Despite the possible perception of Assad's overthrow as a failure of the Astana process, this does not devalue Kazakhstan's efforts. Mediation helped reduce the level of violence in the region and strengthened the country's reputation as a reliable international partner. Overall, while the situation may present certain risks, Kazakhstan possesses sufficient experience and mechanisms to address potential challenges and continue constructive foreign policy activities,” political scientist Anuar Bakhitkhanov believes.
Although Assad's regime is no more, hopes for peace and tranquility in Syria remain quite illusory. Thus, it is likely that Astana's diplomatic efforts may still prove useful.
For the latest events in Syria, you can read at the link.
* Territorial organizations recognized as extremist in Kazakhstan: 'Al-Qaeda' (based on the decision of the Supreme Court of Kazakhstan from October 15, 2004), ISIS ("Islamic State," by the decision of the Esil District Court of Astana from October 15, 2015)