The National Fund has experienced a record reduction in its assets.

• guaranteed transfers (two trillion tenge);
• targeted transfers (3.29 trillion tenge);
• management expenses (15 billion tenge).

Ghalymzhan Aitkazin notes that compared to last year, the situation appears catastrophic.

“As of December 1, 2023, net inflows into the National Fund amounted to 4.3 trillion tenge, and with investment income, it reached 6.2 trillion tenge against withdrawals of four trillion. However, at the end of last year, a scheme involving shares of ‘KazMunayGas’ was implemented, which caused withdrawals to sharply increase by 1.3 trillion tenge, reaching 5.3 trillion tenge,” the economist points out.

Over the past year, the burden on the National Fund has significantly increased. The government raised targeted transfers in 2024 from 1.6 trillion tenge to 3.6 trillion tenge. As a result, the volume of withdrawals surged to a record six trillion.

According to Aitkazin, the situation is concerning, as record withdrawals are being covered by the fund itself and its investment income. Over the past two years, more than 11 trillion tenge (approximately 22 billion dollars) have been drained from the National Fund, which currently stands at 60 billion dollars.

The economist reminded that half of the investment income from the National Fund is allocated for the “National Fund — for Children” program. However, with the current level of expenditures, questions arise regarding the long-term sustainability of the fund and its ability to support projects aimed at benefiting future generations.

Economists have long argued that the authorities in Kazakhstan need to stop relying solely on the resources of the National Fund and find alternative ways to replenish the leaking state budget. Despite this, deputies of the Mazhilis recently approved an additional withdrawal of two trillion tenge from the country’s oil reserves.