What will the dollar be worth in 2025? Financial experts share their forecasts.
AFK analysts note that the growth rate of the global economy is expected to stabilize around 3.2–3.3% in 2024-2025. However, the future development of the situation remains unclear: it all depends on the strategy chosen by the elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, and his team.
The primary risk for Kazakhstan, as usual, is related to oil prices. These may be affected by an increase in shale oil production in the US and actions by OPEC+ (the cartel has become more tolerant of current prices and is less inclined to raise them).
“Such a scenario could negatively impact key macroeconomic indicators (economic growth, trade balance, current account, budget and National Fund revenues, national currency exchange rate, inflation), significantly complicating efforts to diversify the economy and improve the well-being of Kazakhstani citizens,” warn experts.
The country's GDP growth in 2025 is unlikely to reach the target level of six percent and may even fall short of the 2023 level of 5.1%. Analysts believe that the Kazakh economy will "grow" by approximately 4.4% in 2025.
On the other hand, the dollar exchange rate could bring several unpleasant surprises. Economists have little good news for Kazakhstani citizens: it is highly likely that the American currency will become even more expensive next year.
“After a moderate strengthening (by 1.7% at the end of 2023), the national currency's exchange rate against the dollar may end 2024 with a decline of over 10% due to significant excess of domestic demand for foreign currency over its supply. In 2025, the USD/KZT rate may rise to 545.2 tenge (+6% from the current value),” states the forecast from AFK.
Several factors will negatively impact the national currency's exchange rate — commodity prices, a reduction in oil production to comply with OPEC+ quotas, slowing economic growth in China and Europe (where Kazakhstani raw materials are primarily purchased), increased imports, and geopolitical tensions.
Inflation at the end of 2024 may be around 8.7%. In 2025, it is likely to accelerate even further: according to financial forecasts, prices could rise by 9.5% by the end of next year. Contributing factors include a weak tenge exchange rate, reforms in paid services, low labor productivity, and others. The government will likely be unable to bring inflation back to the target mark of five percent.
As for the base rate, it may gradually decrease to 14.25% next year. This means it will simply return to the level it was at before the sharp increase in November 2024. Overall, monetary policy will remain tight.
“The real interest rate in the economy may drop from the current 6.85% to 4.75%, which will negatively affect the attractiveness of tenge-denominated assets and the national currency exchange rate,” analysts indicate.
High inflation and the base rate may adversely affect the issuance of loans to businesses, and the dynamics of retail lending will also slow down.
Previously, financiers provided conflicting assessments regarding the dollar exchange rate by the end of 2024. If you are an optimist, you may prefer this material. However, if you lean towards pessimism, you can read a more gloomy forecast by following this link.