"All oligarchs are equal, but some are more equal than others." Why is Timur Kulibayev growing richer despite losing assets?

January 2020. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev meets with Timur Kulibayev, Chairman of the Presidium of the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs "Atameken." The agenda includes issues of import substitution, improving the efficiency of government procurement, and business development. At that time, Kulibayev, the husband of the middle daughter of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, was a magnate and one of the most influential figures in Kazakhstan's economic and political landscape.

January 2022. Kazakhstan has changed. The transition of power from the first president Nursultan Nazarbayev to his successor Tokayev was marked by dual power and uncertainty. The active transition period ended with the bloody January events of 2022, also known as Kantar, which transformed the country’s political system. Following these events, part of the establishment – representatives of the so-called "old Kazakhstan" and the former president's family – began to face difficulties.

Nazarbayev and his close associates lost their privileged status. His eldest daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, resigned from her position as a member of parliament. His nephew, Kairat Satybaldyuly (Satybaldy), was sentenced to 6 years in prison for large-scale embezzlement, and his wife, Gulmira Satybaldy, received a 12-year prison sentence on charges of extortion and abuse of power. Kairat Satybaldyuly was also ordered to return 50 billion tenge (104 million dollars) to the state budget.

Nazarbayev's brother, Bolat, had 300,000 hectares of land seized – nearly half the area of Almaty.

Another former relative of Nazarbayev (the former father-in-law of his eldest daughter) – businessman Kairat Boranbayev – was sentenced to 8 years in prison in May 2023, but in October, his actual prison term was replaced with a restriction of freedom. In June 2024, he was reappointed as president of the National Paralympic Committee.

The first blow to Timur Kulibayev came in his positions within state-linked structures. In January 2022, Nazarbayev's son-in-law left his post as Chairman of the Presidium of the NPP "Atameken." In March of the same year, he resigned from the board of directors of Russia's Gazprom.

In July 2022, Kulibayev transferred his 49% stake in Petrosun LLP, which provided oil processing and sales services. His company’s share was handed over to the state-owned company KazMunayGas. Immediately after the Kazakh-Chinese company became half-state-owned, it faced million-dollar fines for violating antitrust laws. In 2024, the company was announced to be liquidated and a similar entity created.

In October 2022, Kulibayev lost a lawsuit regarding the ownership of land belonging to Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (KazNU), where his company Atlas Development was constructing an elite class A business center. A year prior, the university attempted to challenge a decree from the akimat, which stated that part of KazNU's land had been expropriated to private companies, but faced rejection due to "expiration of the statute of limitations."

The year 2023 brought new adventures for Nazarbayev's son-in-law: a guest house belonging to one of Kulibayev's companies was demolished. He lost assets belonging to the national railway operator Kazakhstan Temir Zholy.

In May, the court seized 50% of Kulibayev's stake in LLP "Gas Storage Park." An investigation into the company's activities began after the January events, which were triggered by rising gas prices. The company was accused of establishing monopolistically high prices, resulting in illegal income of 2 billion tenge.

“It was established that the management of the partnership during the period from 2017 to 2021, using a dominant position in the secondary wholesale market of liquefied petroleum gas, set and maintained monopolistically high prices for acceptance, storage, and filling services of liquefied petroleum gas,” the agency stated at that time.

Kulibayev's company Joint Technologies paid a penalty for violating contract terms but has not yet exited the shareholders of the "Gas Storage Park." In March, the state-owned "Atyrau Oil Refinery" became one of its co-founders.

In June 2023, Kulibayev's property in the UK came under close scrutiny. By June 2024, it became known that he sold several British real estate assets, including a house purchased in 2007 during his tenure at the state fund Samruk-Kazyna. One asset was sold for 34.7 million pounds, another for 12 million.

In September, British authorities revealed details about Timur Kulibayev's properties in London, and materials regarding his assets in Russia emerged.

“Gazprom people” form a special Russian caste, a state within a state, with their own separate budget, army, private military companies, closed settlements “only for their own,” and other privileges that no one else in the Russian business environment possesses. Timur Kulibayev has also become part of this caste – he owns the largest estate in one of the specially protected Gazprom settlements, and the tenant of their joint business center in Moscow with Kairat Boranbayev is the son of Putin's closest friend and associate,” – wrote the Telegram channel "Exit to the Sea."

In October, the Telegram channel Nege.Aqsha, referencing documents that came into its possession, wrote that Kulibayev is included in a classified list of oligopoly subjects whose assets may be returned to the state. The Telegram channel's post was quoted by the state news agency Kazinform.

In 2024, Timur Kulibayev sold the coal company "Shubarkol Premium," while his oil company "Caspian Oil" was fined 13 billion tenge. That same year, he continued to litigate against the asset recovery committee.

During the same year, amidst the largest flooding in Kazakhstan in 80 years, which left over 60 settlements cut off from the outside world, Kulibayev, along with other Forbes-listed businessmen, contributed 30 billion tenge for the restoration of the Atyrau region. In a statement published by the press service of the "Halyk" fund, he noted that under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's leadership, the country would overcome “all difficulties.”

Previously, Tokayev had stated that he would have a conversation with the Forbes-listed entrepreneurs.

“They will be assigned to each region, district, and village and will be held accountable by name,” the president said at that time.

DROPS IN THE OCEAN?

Despite the challenges of recent years, Timur Kulibayev's wealth appears to continue to grow. Over the past four years, it has nearly doubled: from 2.8 billion dollars to 5 billion. He remains one of the few Kazakhs on the global Forbes list alongside his wife and daughter of the former president, Dinara Kulibayeva, as well as businessmen Vladimir Kim and Bulat Utemuratov.

Kuat Akizhanov, Deputy Director of the Spik Analytical Center, believes that Kulibayev's ability to stay afloat is due to his accumulated assets.

– His wealth is so immense that even if he has lost something, it is unlikely to affect the absolute size of his fortune. We have a rent-based economy, where he is one of the key players. And let’s not forget that the largest bank in Kazakhstan, which has been supported in every incredible way for the past 30 years, is owned by him. And we know that the financial sector ends each year with a profit,” says Akizhanov. – “This only confirms that the structural economic model in Kazakhstan remains unchanged. And politically, not much is changing. All our oligarchs are equal, but some oligarchs are more equal than others. The system relies on agreements and certain personalities.

Akizhanov believes that Kulibayev has managed to integrate into the new power structure being created in Kazakhstan.

– I see the transformation of our political economy from an authoritarian kleptocracy, where there