"All oligarchs are equal, but some are more equal." Why is Timur Kulibayev getting richer even as he loses assets?

January 2020. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev meets with Timur Kulibayev, chairman of the presidium of the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs "Atameken." The agenda includes issues of import substitution, increasing the efficiency of government procurement, and business development. At that time, Kulibayev, the husband of the middle daughter of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, was a tycoon and one of the most influential figures in Kazakhstan's economic and political landscape.

January 2022. Kazakhstan has changed. The transition of power from the first president Nursultan Nazarbayev to his successor Tokayev was marked by dual power and uncertainty. The active period of transition culminated in the bloody January events of 2022, also known as Kantar, which transformed the country's political system. Following these events, a portion of the establishment—representatives of the so-called "old Kazakhstan" and members of the former president's family—began to face difficulties.

Nazarbayev and his close associates lost their privileged status. His eldest daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, resigned from her position as a member of parliament. Nazarbayev's nephew, Kairat Satybaldyuly (Satybaldy), was sentenced to six years in prison for large-scale embezzlement, while his wife, Gulmira Satybaldy, received a 12-year prison sentence for extortion and abuse of power. Kairat Satybaldyuly was also ordered to return 50 billion tenge (approximately 104 million dollars) to the state budget.

Nazarbayev's brother, Bolat, had seized 300,000 hectares of land—an area nearly equivalent to half of Almaty's size.

Another former relative of Nazarbayev (the former father-in-law of his eldest daughter), businessman Kairat Boranbayev, was sentenced to eight years in prison in May 2023; in October, his actual prison sentence was replaced with a restriction on freedom. In June 2024, he was reappointed as president of the National Paralympic Committee.

The first blow to Timur Kulibayev came in his positions within the structures closely tied to the state. In January 2022, Nazarbayev's son-in-law stepped down as chairman of the presidium of the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs "Atameken." In March of the same year, he resigned from the board of directors of the Russian company Gazprom.

In July 2022, Kulibayev transferred his 49% share in Petrosun LLP, which provided oil processing and sales services. His share was handed over to the state-owned company KazMunaiGas. Immediately after the Kazakhstan-China company became half state-owned, it faced millions in fines for violating antitrust laws. In 2024, it was announced that the company would be liquidated and a similar entity created.

In October 2022, Kulibayev lost a lawsuit over ownership rights to land belonging to Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (KazNU), where his company Atlas Development was constructing a high-end business center of class A. A year prior, the university attempted to challenge a decision by the akimat that had alienated part of KazNU's land to private companies but faced rejection due to "expiration of the statute of limitations."

The year 2023 brought new challenges for Nazarbayev's son-in-law: a guest house belonging to one of Kulibayev's companies was demolished. He lost assets belonging to the national railway operator Kazakhstan Temir Zholy.

In May, the court seized 50% of Kulibayev's stake in the LLP "Park of Liquefied Natural Gas Storage." An investigation into the company's activities began after the January events, triggered by rising gas prices. The company was accused of setting monopolistically high prices, resulting in illegal profits of 2 billion tenge.

“It was established that the management of the partnership, during the period from 2017 to 2021, using a dominant position in the secondary wholesale market for liquefied natural gas, set and maintained monopolistically high prices for the acceptance, storage, and pouring of liquefied natural gas services,” the agency stated at that time.

Kulibayev's company Joint Technologies paid a penalty for breach of contract terms but has not yet exited the shareholder structure of the "Park of Liquefied Natural Gas Storage." In March, the state-owned Atyrau Oil Refinery became one of its co-founders.

In June 2023, Kulibayev's assets in the UK came under close scrutiny. In June 2024, it became known that he sold several properties in Britain, including a house purchased in 2007 during his tenure at the state fund Samruk-Kazyna. One of the assets was sold for £34.7 million, another for £12 million.

In September, British authorities revealed details about Timur Kulibayev's properties in London and published materials regarding his real estate in Russia.

“Gazpromovskie” refers to a special Russian caste, a state within a state, with its own separate budget, army, private military companies, closed settlements "only for their own," and other privileges not enjoyed by anyone else in the Russian business environment. Timur Kulibayev has also become part of this caste—he owns the largest estate in one of the specially protected Gazprom settlements, and the tenant of their jointly owned Moscow business center with Kairat Boranbayev is the son of Putin's closest friend and ally,” the telegram channel “Vyhod k Moryu” wrote.

In October, the telegram channel Nege.Aqsha, citing documents that came into its possession, wrote that Kulibayev was included in a classified list of oligopoly subjects whose assets may be returned to the state. The post from the telegram channel was quoted by the state news agency Kazinform.

In 2024, Timur Kulibayev sold the coal company Shubarkol Premium, and his oil company Caspian Oil was fined 13 billion tenge. That same year, he continued to litigate against the asset recovery committee.

In that same year, during the largest flood in Kazakhstan in 80 years, which left over 60 settlements cut off from the outside world, Kulibayev, along with other Forbes-listed businessmen, contributed 30 billion tenge to the recovery efforts in Atyrau region. In a statement published by the press service of the Halyk fund, he noted that under the leadership of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the country would overcome “all difficulties.”

Previously, Tokayev had stated that there would be a discussion with entrepreneurs from the Forbes list.

“They will be assigned to each region, district, and village and will be held accountable by name,” the president stated at that time.

A DROP IN THE OCEAN?

Despite the challenges of recent years, Timur Kulibayev's wealth appears to continue to grow. Over four years, it has nearly doubled: from 2.8 billion dollars to 5 billion. He remains one of the few Kazakhstanis on the global Forbes list, alongside his wife and daughter of the former president, Dinara Kulibayeva, as well as businessmen Vladimir Kim and Bulat Utemuratov.

Kuat Akizhanov, deputy head of the Spik analytical center, believes that Kulibayev's accumulated assets help him stay afloat.

– His wealth is so immense that even if he loses something, it is unlikely to affect the absolute size of his fortune. We have a rentier economy, in which he is one of the key players. And let’s not forget that the largest bank in Kazakhstan, which has been supported in every incredible way for 30 years, is owned by him. And we know that the financial sector ends each year with profits,” says Akizhanov. “This only confirms that the structural economic model in Kazakhstan remains unchanged. And politically, not much is changing. All our oligarchs are equal, but some oligarchs are more equal than others. The system relies on agreements and certain personalities.

Akizhanov believes that Kulibayev has managed to fit into the new power structure being created in Kazakhstan.

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